TOPICAL STRATEGIC MULTI-LAYER ASSESSMENT AND AIR FORCE RESEARCH LABORATORY MULTI DISCIPLINARY WHITE PAPER IN SUPPORT OF COUNTER-TERRORISM AND COUNTER-WMD Countering Violent Extremism Scientific Methods & Strategies

Violent Extremism Poor Governance CVE

While the dust has not settled on the Arab Spring (and Summer), the events have already yielded several insights. First, there are significantly high levels of perceived grievance associated with poor governance (e.g., lack of rule of law, justice, and provision of services) in the Middle East. Second, there is a direct relationship between the actions of the government and the actions of a social movement; that is, the government can fan the flames and provoke increasing violence or douse them and quell it. Clearly, ideology is not the sole factor stoking dissent in the Middle East. In fact, in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood—an Islamist group who has been accused of violence in the past—was ostensibly on the sidelines of the largely grassroots movement to remove President Mubarak.