Dealing with uncertainty: the illusion of knowledge in the study of counterterrorism effectiveness

counterterrorism effectiveness security methodology causality conceptualization

Efforts to combat terrorism have become a priority in the security agenda of most countries around the world, while the respective policies, tools and instruments have amounted to significant costs. A study by PricewaterhouseCoopers in 2011 estimated that the EU spent €93.5 million on counterterrorism (CT) in 2009 alone (PricewaterhouseCoopers 2011).1 Estimates for the United States suggest that between 2001 and 2011, more than one trillion US dollars has been allocated to measures and policies related to the fight against terrorism (Mueller and Stewart 2012, 103).